Forecasting Analysis and Planning
Objectives
- To know the dynamics of human population and the main trends of demographic evolution;
- To acquire skills in the methodologies of forecasting analysis;
- To identify the typology of the demographic projections and know how to apply the Cohort-Component Method;
- To implement the conclusions of the Forecasting Analysis exercise in the construction of Scenarios and Planning.
General characterization
Code
711071048
Credits
6
Responsible teacher
Available soon
Hours
Weekly - 4
Total - Available soon
Teaching language
Portuguese
Prerequisites
Non applicable
Bibliography
DUPÂQUIER, Jacques (1999), A População Mundial no Século XX, Lisboa: Piaget
NAZARETH, J. Manuel (2004), Demografia: A Ciência da População, Lisboa: Presença
RODRIGUES, Teresa, MARTINS, Maria Rosário O. (Coord.) (2014), Envelhecimento e Saúde. Prioridades Políticas num Portugal em Mudança, Edições Instituto Hidrográfico, Lisboa
RODRIGUES, Teresa, CASTRO HENRIQUES, Filipa (2016). Re-birth. Demographic challenges facing Portuguese society. Plataforma para o Crescimento Sustentável (Coord). Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies
RODRIGUES, Teresa et al. (2014), Globalization and international security. An overview, NOVA Publishers, Nova Iorque
Teaching method
The UC is based on theoretical lectures and practical application of methods using software applications, such as Excel. The following strategies will be applied: lectures, slide show demonstrations, questions and answers, and sistematic review at the end of each module. The practical component is geared towards solving problems and exercises, including discussion and interpretation of results. A midterm exam will evaluate the individual acquired knowledge. During the semester, students must also prepare a planning project based on the forecasting exercise of one region of interest and present their work results to the professor, as well as to the other students. Finally, the students must write reports about these results.
Evaluation method
-Midterm exam (25%, minimum grade 9,5/20);
- Presentation and discussion of the project (30%);
- Final report (45%);
- Attendance (absence to practical classes: minus 0-2/20).
Subject matter
Module I - A World at different speeds. From the Past to the scenarios of the future
1.1 The great demographic transformation of the XXI century
1.2 Globalization and the Risk Society. The challenges
Module II - Forecasting Analysis
2.1 Operational concepts
2.2 The typology of demographic projections
2.3 The case of the cohort-component method
2.4 Demographic projections, Forecasting Analysis and the Construction of Scenarios
Module III - From Demographic Projections to Planning
3.1 Strategic Planning
3.2 Ecological Planning
3.3 Planning of Facilities
Module IV - Presentation of Research Projects
Programs
Programs where the course is taught: