Demography, Prospective and Panning


This Course aims to prove the importance of the knowledge and use of population main characteristics and prospective attitude to support decision-making in different sectors of the society. It also has the goal of showing the advantages of planning in supporting both public policies and the private sector.
At the end the students should: 1) get a good Knowledge on demographic dynamics and the major trends of demographic current and future changes; 2) Have a critical view on the main risks and regionally distinct challenges that characterize the present and the future of the world’s regions; 3) Recognize the characteristics and objectives of Demographic Analysis in its various specialties; 4) Be able to calculate and interpret generic demographic indicators; 5) Be able to perform simple forecast exercises; 6) Knowing how to read and manage the conclusions of Prospective Scenarios; 7) Identify the contributions of prospective exercise for assuring social development and support the decision-making process in the context of strategic planning, ecological planning and equipment programming.

General characterization





Responsible teacher

Isabel Cristina Maciel Natário, Teresa Maria Ferreira Rodrigues dos Santos Veiga


Weekly - Available soon

Total - 41

Teaching language



Basic notions of Analysis and intermediate level notions of Probability and Statistics.


DUPÂQUIER, Jacques (1999), A População Mundial no Século XX, Lisboa: Piaget

NAZARETH, J. Manuel (2004), Demografia: A Ciência da População, Lisboa: Presença

RODRIGUES, Teresa, MARTINS, Maria Rosário O. (2014), Envelhecimento e Saúde. Prioridades Políticas num Portugal em Mudança, Edições Instituto Hidrográfico, Lisboa

RODRIGUES, Teresa et al. (2014), Globalization and international security. An overview, NOVA Publishers, Nova Iorque

Teaching method

The course is taught through the e-learning platform using synchronous tools (discussion and questions in line with the teacher) and asynchronous tools (Forum, email, and learning materials available in the e-learning platform). Videos will be available for explanation of concepts and practical examples, as well as a set of exercises resolved.

Evaluation method

Individual assignment: Prospective analysis and planning exercise of a sector of the student''s reality or professional activity (health center, hospital, ward / specialty ward or other) - 100%:

30% of the final grade - elaboration of a theme proposal, to be validated by the teacher. An A4 sheet should contain the provisional title, the reasons for the choice and a brief description of the location (hospital service / health center / specialty or other) chosen and the type of data (statistical and / or non-statistical information) to be used, although possibly only provisionally

70% of the final grade - submission of the Final Report, according to the model available on the Moodle Platform (variable size, according to each case, although not more than 15pp).

Subject matter

The course is organized in four modules:

1) Demographic dynamics. From the past to future scenarios;

2) Demographics and Forecasting. The importance of Demographic Analysis in support planning;

3) The Forecasting Logic. Concepts and methodologies and

4) From Demographic Projections to planning.


Programs where the course is taught: