Methods of Foresight Analysis

General characterization

Prerequisites

Capacity to access data bases and to statistical analysis

Good understanding of English written texts and capacity to integrate discussion groups in English

Availability to participate in simulation activities developed in the course unit.

Bibliography

Banse et al.(2011) On Prospective Technology Studies, KIT Scient Publ
Futures Group (1994) Scenarios, Futures Research Methodology, AC/UNU Millennium Project
Georghiou et al. (2008), The Handbook of Technology Foresight, E. Elgar
Glenn, Gordon, (2002), 2002 The State of the Future, UNU
Keenan, Miles, Koi-Ova 2003, Handbook of Knowledge Society Foresight EuroFound
Krings, Rodriguez, Schleisiek 2017, Scientific Knowledge and the Transgression of Boundaries, Springer
Moniz (2006), Foresight methodologies to understand changes in the labour process, Enterprise and Work Innovation Studies, 2, 105-116
NISTEP (2005): The Science and Technology Foresight Survey – Delphi Analysis, Tokyo, NISTEP Report N 97
Popper et al. (2007) Global Foresight Outlook 2007 EFMN
Shell International: Scenarios: An Explorer’s Guide, 2003, 55 pp
Schwartz (1991) The Art of the Long View. Doubleday
Von Reibnitz (1988), Scenario Techniques McGraw-Hill

Teaching method

In lectures we will explain and discuss the sequence of points in the course program. In the last third of each lecture we will discuss, whenever possible, the resolution of a practical exercise whose solution requires applying the knowledge learned in the lecture. The teaching methods are varied and include: a) exposure, b) discussion and critical analysis of texts and audiovisual material, c) research and systematization of scientific information.

Evaluation method

The students evaluation is done continuously during the semester or only by examination. For the continuous evaluation the students must achieve the following aims:

a) seminar attainement

b) article review

c) report

The different weights for these evaluation elements is the following:

- attainement 30%

- review 20%

- report 50%

Subject matter

1. What is foresight analysis?
2. Innovation processes management and technological decision
3. Revision of the main used methods
   1. participative
      1. brainstorming
      2. futures workshops
   2. with experts
      1. Delphi
      2. SWOT
      3. scenarios
      4. roadmapping
   3. other methods
      1. extrapolation
      2. benchmarking
      3. scanning
      4. Morphological analysis
      5. technology visions
4. Simulation labs
   1. futures workshops
   2. SWOT
   3. Delphi method
   4. other methods

Programs

Programs where the course is taught: