Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis
Objectives
1. To learn about the specificities of the intelligence analysis as well as the role of critical thinking in this subject.
2. To learn about different structured analytic techniques (SAT), regarding the intelligence matters, namely in decomposition and visualization categories (chronologies, time lines, matrices and images) ideas generation (structured brainstorming, cross- impact matrix), scenarios analysis (alternative future analysis), hypothesis generation (analysis of competing hypotheses), cause and effect assessment (key assumption check, red hat analysis), challenge analysis (Delphi method and events of high impact and low probability), conflict management (structured debate) and decision support (complexity manager).
3. How to choose the appropriate SAT whenever dealing with concrete situations.
General characterization
Code
400032
Credits
4.0
Responsible teacher
Helena Cristina Portela Pires Rêgo
Hours
Weekly - Available soon
Total - Available soon
Teaching language
Portuguese. If there are Erasmus students, classes will be taught in English
Prerequisites
No requirements
Bibliography
Beebe, Sarah Miller. Teaching Structured Analytic Techniques with Cases: defending Mumbai. Erie: International Association for Intelligence Education, [s.d.] http://slideplayer.com/slide/3434141/
Besson, Bernard [et. al.]. Méthodes d?Analyse appliquées à l?Intelligence Écononique. Poitiers: Centre de Ressources et d?Information sur l?Intelligence Économique et Stratégique, 2010 http://bdc.aege.fr/public/Methodes_d_analyse_appliquees_a_l_Intelligence_Economique_Livre_Blanc_Icomtech.pdf
Bravo, Rogério. Por um novo modelo de análise integrada: estudos de intelligence para os sete espaços. [s.l.]: [s.n.], 2011 https://www.academia.edu/699210/CONTRIBUTO_PARA_UM_NOVO_MODELO_DE_ANA_LISE_HOL%C3%8DSTICA_EM_ESTUDOS_DE_INTELLIGENCE
ESTADOS UNIDOS, Central Intelligence Agency. A Tradecraft Primer: structured analytic techniques for improving intelligence analysis. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, Center for the Study of Intelligence, 2009 https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/Tradecraft%20Primer-apr09.pdf
Fischoff, Baruch. Chauvin, Cherie. Intelligence Analysis: behavioral and social scientific foundations. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press, 2011 http://www.nap.edu/catalog/13062/intelligence-analysis-behavioral-and-social-scientific-foundations
Folker Jr., Robert D. Intelligence Analysis in Theather Joint Intelligence Centers: an experiment in applying structured methods. Washington, D.C.: Joint Military Intelligence College, 2000 https://fas.org/irp/eprint/folker.pdf
Fox, John. Intelligence Analysis and the Bureau: the evolution of analysis and the analyst position in the FBI, 1908-2013. Journal of Strategic Security, vol.6, n.º 5, pp. 114-123. San Jose: Henley-Putnam University, 2013 http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1307&context=jss
Hall, Wayne Michael. Citrenbaum, Gaby. Intelligence Analysis: how to think in complex environments. Santa Barbara: Praeger Security International, 2010. https://www.academia.edu/8355699/Intelligence_Analysis_How_to_Think_in_Complex_Environments_Praeger_Security_International?auto=download
Heuer Jr., Richard J. Small Groups Processes for Intelligence Analysis. Reston, Virginia: Pherson Associates, 2008 http://www.pherson.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/02.-Small-Group-Processes.pdf
Heuer Jr., Richard J. Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis. Washington, D.C.: CQ Press, 2011 ISBN 978-1-60871-018-8
Heuer Jr., Richard J. Taxonomy of Structured Analytic Techniques. Reston, Virgina: Pherson Associates, 2008 http://www.pherson.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/03.-Taxonomy-of-Structured-Analytic-Techniques_FINAL.pdf
Lahneman, William J.. The Future of Intelligence Analysis, final report, vol. 1. Florida: Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Department of Security Studies and International Affairs, 2006 http://commons.erau.edu/db-security-studies/1/?utm_source=commons.erau.edu%2Fdb-security-studies%2F1&utm_medium=PDF&utm_campaign=PDFCoverPages
Lawrence, Jen, and Larry Chester. Engage the Fox: A Business Fable about Thinking Critically and Motivating your Team. Greenleat Book Group, 2014
Manosevitz, Jason U. Needed: more thinking about conceptual frameworks for analysis ? The case of influence. Studies in Intelligence, vol. 67, n.º 4. Central Intelligence Agency, Washington, D.C., 2013 https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/csi-studies/studies/vol-57-no-4/needed-more-thinking-about-conceptual-frameworks-for-analysis2014the-case-of-influence.html
Mellers, Barbara [et. al.]. The Psychology of Intelligence Analysis: drivers of prediction accuracy in world politics. Journal of Experimental Psychology, vol. 21, n.º 1, pp. 1-14. Washington, D.C.: American Psychology Association, 2015 https://www.apa.org/pubs/journals/releases/xap-0000040.pdf
Messatfa, Hammou. Reyes, Lynn. Schroeck, Michael. El Poder de la Analitica en el Sector Publico. IBM: Sommers, Nova Iorque, 2011 http://www-05.ibm.com/services/es/bcs/pdf/gbeanalytics.pdf
Pherson, Katherine Hibbs. Sullivan Jr., Roy A. Improving the Quality of Analysis in Fusion Centers: making the most of the Nation?s investment. Journal of Strategic Security, vol.6, n.º 5, pp. 309-319. San Jose: Henley-Putnam University, 2013 http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1324&context=jss
Pherson, Randolph H. Strategic Foresight: nine techniques for business and intelligence analysis. Reston, Virgina: Globalytica, 2015 http://www.globalytica.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Strategic-Foresight_Nine-Techniques.pdf
Pherson, Randolph H. Schwartz, Alan R. Manak, Elizabeth. Anticipating Rare Events: the role of ACH and other structured analytic techniques. Reston, Virginia: Pherson Associates, 2008 http://www.pherson.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/05.-Anticipating-Rare-Events-The-Role-of-ACH-and-Other-SATs_FINAL.pdf
Pool, Robert. Field Evaluationin the Intelligence and Counterintelligence Context: workshop summary. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press, 2010 http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12854/field-evaluation-in-the-intelligence-and-counterintelligence-context-workshop-summary
Prunckun, Hank. Handbook of Scientific Methods of Inquiry for Intelligence Analysis. Lanham: Scarecrow Press, 2010. ISBN 978-0-8108-7381
Treverton, Gregory F. Gabbard, C. Bryan. Assessing the tradecraft of intelligence analysis, Santa Monica: RAND Corporation, 2008 http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR293.html
Teaching method
Systemic, constructivist and pragmatic pedagogy (doubt incitement, development of group reasoning, error as a springboard for learning, problem solving)
Evaluation method
Continuous evaluation and elaboration of papers.
Subject matter
Intelligence analysis. The task of the analyst. Paradigm changes. Critical thinking. Cognitive Biases.
Analytical methods taxonomy.
Think about the future. Introduction to structured analytical techniques.
The importance of choosing the appropriate methodology. One project, multiple techniques.
Decomposition and visualization: checklist, chronologies and timelines; list of priorities, matrices, network analysis; concept maps. Mental maps. Dynamic Maps. (Gantt Charts)
Idea-generating processes: 1. structured brainstorming; 2. Virtual; 3. star diagram/starbursting [who, how, what, when, why]; 4. Structured impact matrices; 5. Morphological analysis
Cenarization
Hypothesis generating methods. Analysis of competing hypotheses.
Cause-effect assessments: 1. role playing; 2. red hat analysis; 3. outside-in thinking. The case of counterterrorism analysis; 4. Political forecasting model; 5. Prediction markets.
Challenge analysis: 1. Premortem analysis; 2. structured self-critique; 3. HILP (High Impact Low Probability); 4. What if; 5. Devil's Advocacy; 6. Red team analysis; Delphi method
Decision support: 1. complexity manager; 2. SWOT.
Programs
Programs where the course is taught: