Demographic Forecasting


To promote:
a) Skills on the use of technical tools and methodology to build demographic scenarios;
b) A comprehensive view of possible demographic futures;
c) Knowledge about the main demographic issues and related social impacts and challenges;
d) Capacity to transmit synthetic and critical knowledge, written and oral, mobilizing relevant empirical and theoretical information.

General characterization





Responsible teacher

Maria João Casanova de Araújo e Sá Valente Rosa


Weekly - 4

Total - 168

Teaching language



Frequented and completed Demographic Theory and Analysis


Coale, A. & Demeny, P (1966). Regional model life tables and stable populations. Princeton: Academic Press.
Comissão Europeia. (2019). Demographic Scenarios for the UE: Migration, Population and Education. Luxembourg Publications office of the European Union.
INE (2017). Projeções de população residente em Portugal 2015-2080. Lisboa: INE.
Mendes, M.F. & Rosa, M.J. (2013). Projeções 2030 e o futuro. Lisboa: FFMS.
UN (2013). World Population Prospects - The 2012 Revision, 4 Volumes, New York.
Weeks, J.R. (2008). Population: an introduction to concepts and issues. USA: Thomson Wadsworth.

Teaching method

- One lesson weekly (2 h) with an expositive profile, about theoretical and methodological demographic prospective principles and demonstrative results.
- One lesson weekly (2 h) with a practical profile, including the resolution of practical exercises (5 as minimum).


Evaluation method

Método de avaliação - Individual written test about the syllabus topics (50%), work group on a choosen subject (worth 50%), with mandatory oral discussion.(50%)

Subject matter

1. Intoduction to demographic prospective
1.1. Prospective thinking
1.2. Demographic projections as a planning tool
2. Demographic Reference Scenarios
2.1. Mortality Tables
2.2. Stationary and stable populations
3. Demographic Trends Scenarios
3.1. The component method for cohorts
3.2. Application to the portuguese case
4. Main demographic trends and related social challenges


Programs where the course is taught: