Objectives
To promote:
a) Skills on the use of technical tools and methodology to build demographic scenarios;
b) A comprehensive view of possible demographic futures;
c) Knowledge about the main demographic issues and related social impacts and challenges;
d) Capacity to transmit synthetic and critical knowledge, written and oral, mobilizing relevant empirical and theoretical information.
General characterization
Code
711081067
Credits
6.0
Responsible teacher
Maria João Casanova de Araújo e Sá Valente Rosa
Hours
Weekly -
4
Total -
168
Teaching language
Portuguese
Prerequisites
Frequented and completed Demographic Theory and Analysis
Bibliography
.Comissão Europeia (2019). Demographic Scenarios for the EU: Migration, Population and Education.
. Comissão Europeia (2020). O impacto das alterações demográficas – Relatório da Comissão ao Parlamento Europeu, ao Conselho, ao Comité Económico e Social Europeu e ao Comité das Regiões.
. Grupo de Foz (2021). Métodos demográficos: uma visão desde os países de língua portuguesa. Ed. Edgard Blücher Ltda.
. INE (2020). Projeções de população residente em Portugal 2018-2080. INE
. Nações Unidas (2022). World Population Prospects: summary of results.
. Weeks, J. R. (2008). Population: An introduction to concepts and issues. 10ª edição. Wadsworth Group.
Teaching method
Teaching:
- Sessions with an expositive profile, about theoretical and methodological demographic prospective principles and demonstrative results.
- Sessions with a practical profile, including the resolution of exercises
The distribution of time between expositive and practical sessions is equivalent and the presence of students is recommended (attendance in at least 75% of the sessions = increase of 1 value in the final classification)
Evaluation method
Individual written test about the syllabus topics (worth 50%)
Report on a choosen subject proposed by the teacher, with mandatory oral discussion (worth 50%)
Subject matter
1. Introduction
1.1.Foresight thinking
1.2. Population projections as a planning tool
2. Sources and Databases (World, Europe and Portugal)
3. Trend Scenarios
3.1. Main Demographic Scenarios
3.2. Cohort component method
3.3. Prospective Indicators
3.4. Derived demographic scenarios
4. Reference scenarios
4.1. Stable and stationary populations
4.2. Applications: MEDE
5.Ongoing demographic trends and social challenges
Programs
Programs where the course is taught:
