Modeling Business decisions for Operations
Objectives
The course aims to equip the students with the analytical skill set to use quantitative models pertaining to operations decisions and they will learn how to critically assess the potential benefits as well as limitations of using decision models. The theory behind the models will be taught in lectures and the students will also learn to make these models using software as a part of hands-on exercises and group assignments. The main objective of this course is to equip students with the analytical skill set to use quantitative models. Students will learn how to critically assess the potential benefits as well as limitations of using decision models. By the end of this course, students should be able to: - Make decisions under uncertainty - Recognize where business analysis can add value whilst making critical decisions
General characterization
Code
2641
Credits
3.5
Responsible teacher
Sreyaa Guha
Hours
Weekly - Available soon
Total - Available soon
Teaching language
English
Prerequisites
n/a
Bibliography
Business Analytics: Data Analysis Decision Making by Albright, Christian; Winston, Wayne. (CENGAGE Learning)-6th or 7th Edition
Making Hard Decisions With Decision Tools Suite Updated Edition by Clemen, Robert & Reilly, Terry (South-Western College Pub., 2004)
Teaching method
Students will learn the theory and implement the concepts through case studies and assignments using @Risk software, Precision Tree and Excel.
Evaluation method
Class Work (Quizzes): 10% (to be taken only in class). Best of two will be considered towards the final grade
Group Assignments: 40% (2 assignments weighted equally)
Final Exam: 50%
Subject matter
Topic
General Introduction to the course- structure, deliverables and expectations.
Basic Descriptive Statistics, Introduction to probability distributions.
Business Forecasting : Regression, Analysis of results of a regression model, explanation of some of the parameters in the results table, how to improve model.
Business Forecasting : Ferric Processing Case#
Quiz: On the content of Sessions 1-4* Decision Theory : Decision making under uncertainty, Resolving decision trees.
Decision Theory : The Freemark Abbey Case#
Decision Theory : The Freemark Abbey Case continued
The value of information, Bayes Theorem, Expected monetary values, Certainty equivalence and Risk premium, Risk attitudes.
Risk Analysis : Use of discrete and continuous probability distributions, Scenario analysis, Introduction to Monte Carlo Simulation.
Risk Analysis : The Eagle Airlines case#
Workshop on Assignment 2***
Quiz 2: On the content of Sessions 5-11*
Programs
Programs where the course is taught: