Modelling Environmental Systems
Objectives
At the end of the course, students will have developed the following knowledge, skills and competences:
- Know the principles and systemic approaches for modelling of environmental systems;
- Understand the fundamentals of systems thinking and system dynamics modelling;
- Know how to define a problem in dynamic terms;
- Capacity to develop dynamic hypotheses and build conceptual models for environmental problems;
- Capacity to use system dynamics software and computer-based tools for the analysis of environmental systems;
- Know seminal models for the analysis of typical behavior patterns in environmental systems;
- Be able to formulate model-based environmental policies and evaluation simulation scenarios;
- Understand the efficacy of different strategies for intervening in environmental systems;
- Capacity to analyze data and define modelling strategies for the analysis of environmental problems in a context of complexity and uncertainty;
Capacity to communicate model-based insights effectively.
General characterization
Code
12646
Credits
6.0
Responsible teacher
Nuno Miguel Ribeiro Videira Costa
Hours
Weekly - 4
Total - 56
Teaching language
Português
Prerequisites
N/A
Bibliography
Reading list includes selections from:
Bossel, H. (2007). Systems Zoo 2. Simulation models – climate, ecosystems, resources. Books on Demand.
Ford, A. (2010). Modeling the Environment. 2nd Edition. Island Press.
Sterman, J. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. McGraw-Hill.
Meadows, D.H. (2008). Thinking in systems: a primer. Wright, D. (Ed.). Chelsea Green Publishing.
Voinov, A. (2008). Systems science and modelling for Ecological Economics. Academic Press.
Several academic journal articles.
Teaching method
Lectures on the fundamental concepts and methods and computer lab activities, where students explore modelling tools, case studies and practical model building and analysis exercises. Case studies and in-class assignments are designed around classical models allowing the formulation and analysis of typical behaviour patterns in socio-ecological systems. Student’s creativity is promoted in the application of knowledge to new situations and environmental problems selected by students, namely in the development of a group project developed throughout the semester under teachers’ supervision.
Evaluation method
Course grading includes the group project (requiring a written report, a model, and oral presentations)(50%), three in-class assignments developed with the computational models underpinning the key selected case studies (20%) and an individual quiz (30%).
Subject matter
Thinking in systems: perspective and fundamental concepts
Defining dynamic problems: behaviour-over-time graphs; behaviour modes in socio-ecological systems
Model conceptualization tools I: causal loop diagrams and system archetypes
Model conceptualization tools II: stock-and-flow diagrams, introduction to system dynamics modelling software
Dynamics of environmental systems: first-order systems (equilibrium, growth and goal-seeking dynamics), second-order systems (oscillations and overshoot dynamics), co-flows and aging chains
Model verification and validation: structure and behaviour tests, sensitivity analysis, model documentation
Policy design and evaluation: formulating policies and model-based simulation scenarios
Policy levers: places to intervene in systems
Dynamic modelling based on verbal descriptions, agent-based models and machine learning models
Communicating model insights and interface development