Decision and Risk
Objectives
When approved the student will:
- have had contact with the problematic of decision-making with a single or multiple decision makers,
- know the most important models of decision support, with or without negotiation, and risk,
- understand what kind of data should be collected and processed to support previous models,
- be able to identify and build the adequate models for problems that he or she may face his/her future professional context.
General characterization
Code
12081
Credits
6.0
Responsible teacher
Nelson Fernando Chibeles Pereira Martins
Hours
Weekly - 4
Total - 72
Teaching language
Português
Prerequisites
Available soon
Bibliography
Gomes, I. and Chibeles-Martins, N - Mathematical Models For Decision Making With Multiple Perspectives. An Introduction, Taylor and Francis, Ltd, (2022)
Opricovic, S., Tzeng, G.-H., (2004). Compromise solution by MCDM methods: A comparative analysis of VIKOR and TOPSIS. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 156, 445–455.
Fudenberg F. and Tirole, J. (1995) Game Theory, The MIT Press, 1995.
Kelly A. (2003) Decision Making Using Game Theory: An Introduction for Managers, Cambridge University Press.
Peterson M. (2009) An Introduction to Decision Theory, Cambridge University Press.
Vose D. (2008) Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide. John Wiley & Sons.
Teaching method
Classes are held with an expository first part, where the concepts that will be explored in the second part are presented. In the latter, students are invited to solve one or more Case Studies on their computers, individually or (preferably) in groups, where they will have to use the concepts presented at the beginning of the lesson. These case studies are simplifications of real-life situations and require students to place the topics covered in different personal and professional contexts. Students are encouraged to use appropriate software (spreadsheet, R, Octave) on their own personal computers and to work in teams.
Evaluation method
Approval can be obtained through an exam or Continuous Assessment.
Since the course consists of three modules, continuous assessment is divided into three independent parts. The teacher of each module is responsible for the assessment of their module.
Consider CTD, CTJ, CTR the three marks obtained in the three modules (TD - Decision Theory, TJ - Game Theory, TR - Risk Theory), on a scale of 0 to 20.
CTD, CTJ and CTR will consist of a test, but may include summative assessment components carried out in class.
- A student will pass if:
Average mark = (5 CTD + 4 CTJ + 3 CTR) / 12 >= 9.5,
obtaining a classification in the Normal Season (CEN) of
CEN = Rounding(CMaverage)
If a student fails the continuous assessment, he or she can try to pass the exam. Where CEx is the exam mark, a student will pass if
CEx >= 9.5
obtaining the Appeal Period classification (CER) of:
CER = Rounding (CEx)
Subject matter
I. Decision theory - what is a decision? - structure and analyses of decision-making problems - sequential decisions - decisions with several objectives
II. Game theory - modelling strategic interaction - static games of complete information - dynamic games of complete and incomplete information - cooperative game theory
III. Risk - definition - fundamental model of risk - factors and measures of risk other models for risk