Técnicas Analíticas Estruturadas para Análise de Informações

Caracterização geral

Pré-requisitos

Análise de informações. A tarefa do analista. Mudança do paradigma. Pensamento crítico. Vieses cognitivos.
Taxonomia dos métodos analíticos.
Pensar o futuro. Introdução às técnicas analíticas estruturadas.
A importância da escolha da metodologia adequada. Um projecto, múltiplas técnicas.
Decomposição e visualização: checklist, fitas do tempo e cronologias; lista de prioridades; matrizes; análise de redes; mapas conceptuais. Mapas mentais. Mapas dinâmicos. (Gantt Charts)
Processos geradores de ideias (1. brainstorming estruturado; 2. virtual; 3. diagrama estrela - who, what, how, where, when, why; 4. matrizes de impacto estruturado; 5. análise morfológica)
Cenarização
Métodos geradores de hipóteses. Análise de hipóteses em competição.
Avaliações de causa/efeito: 1. Role playing; 2. Red Hat Analysis; 3. "Outside-in thinking". O caso da análise contraterrorista; 4. Modelo de previsão política; 5. Prediction markets.
Challenge analysis: 1. análise premortem; 2. autocrítica estruturada
1. HILP; 2. What-if; 3. Advogado do diabo; 4. Red team analysis; Método Delphi
Apoio à decisão: 1. Gestor de complexidade; 2. SWOT

Bibliografia

Beebe, Sarah Miller. Teaching Structured Analytic Techniques with Cases: defending Mumbai.  Erie: International Association for Intelligence Education, [s.d.] http://slideplayer.com/slide/3434141/

Besson, Bernard [et. al.]. Méthodes d?Analyse appliquées à l?Intelligence Écononique.  Poitiers: Centre de Ressources et d?Information sur l?Intelligence Économique et Stratégique, 2010 http://bdc.aege.fr/public/Methodes_d_analyse_appliquees_a_l_Intelligence_Economique_Livre_Blanc_Icomtech.pdf

Bravo, Rogério. Por um novo modelo de análise integrada: estudos de intelligence para os sete espaços. [s.l.]: [s.n.], 2011 https://www.academia.edu/699210/CONTRIBUTO_PARA_UM_NOVO_MODELO_DE_ANA_LISE_HOL%C3%8DSTICA_EM_ESTUDOS_DE_INTELLIGENCE

ESTADOS UNIDOS, Central Intelligence Agency. A Tradecraft Primer: structured analytic techniques for improving intelligence analysis. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, Center for the Study of Intelligence, 2009 https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/Tradecraft%20Primer-apr09.pdf

Fischoff, Baruch. Chauvin, Cherie. Intelligence Analysis: behavioral and social scientific foundations. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press, 2011 http://www.nap.edu/catalog/13062/intelligence-analysis-behavioral-and-social-scientific-foundations

Folker Jr., Robert D. Intelligence Analysis in Theather Joint Intelligence Centers: an experiment in applying structured methods. Washington, D.C.: Joint Military Intelligence College, 2000 https://fas.org/irp/eprint/folker.pdf

Fox, John. Intelligence Analysis and the Bureau: the evolution of analysis and the analyst position in the FBI, 1908-2013. Journal of Strategic Security, vol.6, n.º 5, pp. 114-123. San Jose: Henley-Putnam University, 2013 http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1307&context=jss

Hall, Wayne Michael. Citrenbaum, Gaby. Intelligence Analysis: how to think in complex environments. Santa Barbara: Praeger Security International, 2010. https://www.academia.edu/8355699/Intelligence_Analysis_How_to_Think_in_Complex_Environments_Praeger_Security_International?auto=download

Heuer Jr., Richard J. Small Groups Processes for Intelligence Analysis. Reston, Virginia: Pherson Associates, 2008 http://www.pherson.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/02.-Small-Group-Processes.pdf

Heuer Jr., Richard J. Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis. Washington, D.C.: CQ Press, 2011 ISBN 978-1-60871-018-8

Heuer Jr., Richard J. Taxonomy of Structured Analytic Techniques. Reston, Virgina: Pherson Associates, 2008 http://www.pherson.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/03.-Taxonomy-of-Structured-Analytic-Techniques_FINAL.pdf

Lahneman, William J.. The Future of Intelligence Analysis, final report, vol. 1. Florida: Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Department of Security Studies and International Affairs, 2006 http://commons.erau.edu/db-security-studies/1/?utm_source=commons.erau.edu%2Fdb-security-studies%2F1&utm_medium=PDF&utm_campaign=PDFCoverPages

Lawrence, Jen, and Larry Chester. Engage the Fox: A Business Fable about Thinking Critically and Motivating your Team. Greenleat Book Group, 2014

Manosevitz, Jason U. Needed: more thinking about conceptual frameworks for analysis ? The case of influence. Studies in Intelligence, vol. 67, n.º 4. Central Intelligence Agency,  Washington, D.C., 2013 https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/csi-studies/studies/vol-57-no-4/needed-more-thinking-about-conceptual-frameworks-for-analysis2014the-case-of-influence.html

Mellers, Barbara [et. al.]. The Psychology of Intelligence Analysis: drivers of prediction accuracy in world politics. Journal of Experimental Psychology, vol. 21, n.º 1, pp. 1-14. Washington, D.C.: American Psychology Association, 2015 https://www.apa.org/pubs/journals/releases/xap-0000040.pdf

Messatfa, Hammou. Reyes, Lynn. Schroeck, Michael. El Poder de la Analitica en el Sector Publico. IBM: Sommers, Nova Iorque, 2011 http://www-05.ibm.com/services/es/bcs/pdf/gbeanalytics.pdf

Pherson, Katherine Hibbs. Sullivan Jr., Roy A. Improving the Quality of Analysis in Fusion Centers: making the most of the Nation?s investment. Journal of Strategic Security, vol.6, n.º 5, pp. 309-319. San Jose: Henley-Putnam University, 2013 http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1324&context=jss

Pherson, Randolph H. Strategic Foresight: nine techniques for business and intelligence analysis. Reston, Virgina: Globalytica, 2015 http://www.globalytica.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Strategic-Foresight_Nine-Techniques.pdf

Pherson, Randolph H. Schwartz, Alan R. Manak, Elizabeth. Anticipating Rare Events: the role of ACH and other structured analytic techniques. Reston, Virginia: Pherson Associates, 2008 http://www.pherson.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/05.-Anticipating-Rare-Events-The-Role-of-ACH-and-Other-SATs_FINAL.pdf

Pool, Robert. Field Evaluationin the Intelligence and Counterintelligence Context: workshop summary. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press, 2010 http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12854/field-evaluation-in-the-intelligence-and-counterintelligence-context-workshop-summary

Prunckun, Hank. Handbook of Scientific Methods of Inquiry for Intelligence Analysis. Lanham: Scarecrow Press, 2010. ISBN 978-0-8108-7381

Treverton, Gregory F. Gabbard, C. Bryan. Assessing the tradecraft of intelligence analysis, Santa Monica: RAND Corporation, 2008 http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR293.html

Método de ensino

Continuous evaluation and elaboration of papers.

Método de avaliação

N/A

Conteúdo

Pedagogia sistémica, construtivista e pragmática (estímulo da dúvida, desenvolvimento do raciocínio em grupo, erro como trampolim para a aprendizagem, resolução de problemas)

Cursos

Cursos onde a unidade curricular é leccionada: